2006 Baseball Predictions.......National League

Ok, thanks to this unusually perfect weather, Im writing on the deck today. As of 12:50pm, its 62 degrees, mostly sunny with a slight breeze. The weather is a lot better than the 2006 Teacher Expo i went to this morning....basically a cattle call. Anyway, yesterday was American League, and I promised National League. Without further ado.....

National League East - Philadephia Phillies
-I know, brave choice (perhaps a pun intended). I think this is the Phillies year....plenty of offense in the lineup, and a team that is starting to resemble the White Sox of last year....especially since Aaron Rowand is out patrolling center. Looking at what they did the last month of the season last year, I cant see any reason why they cant continue it. Second place will be a tough battle between the Mets and the Braves. With a heavy heart I place the Metropolitans 2nd, somewhere around 87-88 games. An injury to Pedro, Wagner, Glavine, etc. will cripple this team. Ill talk about the Mets all season....so Ill end it there. The Braves are remade, featuring a much younger team than the last decade. Such budding stars as Francoeur, Langerhans and LaRoche mix well with Chipper, Andruw, Giles and co. Interested to see how the pitching staff fares this year without Leo Mazzone.....Smoltz and Hudson look good at the top, but it bottoms out with Sosa, Thomson and Ramirez.....and no closer to speak of (Reitsma, Devine). Still, enough talent to win 84-86 games. The Nationals go 4th (not enough talent to compete....won't repeat 2005's amazing run) being trailed by the Marlins, who will be lucky to win 60 games.....theyre terrible. Wonder how fast Miguel Cabrera starts looking for the exit....


National League Central - Houston Astros
-Well, the addidition of Preston Wilson won't hurt, who I personally think has enough left in the tank for a good season. It will be a close division, edging out the Cards and the Cubbies....but I think the Astros have enough balance in the lineup to take it......combine that with a few solid starters and one of the best relievers in the game, and it should work out A-OK for the 'Stros. Look for them at 90 wins. Then I see St. Louis, who I believe will suffer from the departure of Matt Morris to the Giants. Carpenter and Mulder are as good of a 1-2 in baseball, but the back end of the rotation suffers. The lineup is not what it used to be, with an aging Scott Rolen, fresh off an injury-plagued 05 and Jim Edmonds isnt what he used to be (still capable of 25 HR, 90 RBI though). The Cubs are the Cubs.....and without Prior/Wood (who could be the 2 most injury-plagued, talent filled athletes of the last 10 years) they dont have the firepower to compete. The Brewers have improved, and the addition of Prince Fielder to everyday play won't hurt. The Reds and the Pirates round out the rest of the division.....because, simply, they're the Reds and Pirates (but have nice, new stadiums). Speaking of new ballparks, the new Busch Stadium is gorgeous....go take a look here.

National League West - Los Angeles Dodgers.
-This continues to be the worst division in baseball. The Dodgers might win by default....slightly above-average pitching staff, who knows with Gagne....and a bunch of new faces that the Dodgers are "taking a chance on" (Garciaparra, Mueller, Seo, Lofton, Furcal, etc.). The Padres and Giants are in similar boats....playing in a bad division will get them 8 more wins than they should....but still it isnt enough. That leaves Arizona and Colorado, who are mediocre teams---look for 75 and 73 wins, respectively.

National League Wild Card - New York Mets
-Building on a much improved 2005, the Mets made enough additions to solidify a wild card spot. I think they can play well enough to secure a playoff spot. Giving Bannister the 5th spot in the rotation will turn out to be a good move...hes a solid pitcher, plus that allows Heilman to be a relief guy, where he flourished last year. Offense should be solid....like Beltran in the 2-hole. Theres less pressure for him there, and he can work on getting on base and taking some pitches for Reyes to run on.

National League Cy Young - Jake Peavy
-Simply put, it's his year. No Prior, no Wood.....I dont think Pedro will stay healthy enough to win it. Two straight years with sub-3 ERA......the only thing keeping him from the award is his win total, which will improve this year (only 28 in last 2 years). Look for him to go with 17 wins, 2.80 ERA, 220 Ks....not bad.





National League MVP - Albert Pujols
-Tough choice...could be Derrek Lee, could be others....but Pujols should win this. If he does what he's done the last few years, he should go around .320/45/130/100 Runs...and that should be more than enough for the award.







National League Rookie of the Year - Jeremy Hermida
-The Marlins OF might be the only good thing to come out of Miami this season. The young slugger hit a pinch hit grand slam in his first MLB at-bat, and had 4 HRs in 41 ABs last year. Hes got a solid swing and since he plays for the Marlins, he'll get plenty of ABs....the future is very bright for this young kid.